hunbisco

Confectionery manufacturers are optimistic: even in difficult times, we won’t give up on sweets, but you never know

In times of peace, crisis and war, people have always loved, love, consumed and consume biscuits, chocolate, candies and other delicacies, said Dr Róbert Török, director of the Hungarian Trade and Hospitality Museum, at the traditional pre-Easter round table discussion of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers.

He added that people look for sweets and chocolate even in times of crisis, and manufacturers have always found the right answers for the given circumstances. They substituted raw materials, experimented with alternative delivery routes, and came up with new recipes in order to always be able to produce confectionery and chocolate. This was already the case during the Napoleonic conquests, but also during the crises and major wars of the 20th century.

The Secretary General of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers, Mr Gábor Intődy, reported that the sector has overcome some recent difficult periods. The recession of 2008, the introduction of the public health product tax in 2011, and the pandemic in 2020 significantly reduced the demand for sweets, which stabilized by 2021 with the introduction of the vaccinations. Manufacturers are currently optimistic and do not expect a similar decline. At the moment, we can clearly speak of an increasingly more expensive market. The main reasons are the inflationary environment, raw material prices, energy prices, labour costs, a significant increase in the NETA tax, and the attempts by traders to curb their losses due to their rising expenses, additional taxes and price caps.

According to the Association’s estimate, the increase in the price of chocolates, biscuits, candies and other confectionery products was around 20% in total, while the turnover rose by 20% to around HUF 310 billion, with sales volumes typically stagnating or slightly decreasing. With this, the increase in the price of sweets remained below the average food inflation of around 40%. Even so, there are big differences between the product groups: some have become drastically more expensive and other less so. There was also a winning product category last year: ice cream, where sales increased by around 5%. Meanwhile, the price of ice cream has also risen significantly, due in no small part to hiking energy costs, because ice cream is a very energy-intensive delicacy due to the need for continuous deep cooling.

Hungarians generally do not give up their quality expectations despite the price increase. According to the Association’s survey, 49% of confectionery consumers answered that they do not compromise on quality, but rather buy the given product less often and in smaller quantities. 37% are at times more price sensitive and at times choose quality, and only 14% clearly almost always choose the cheaper product.

Manufacturers emphasize that innovation continues: they strive to make their confectionery products more attractive with new flavours, colours, and packaging. At Easter, the most popular candy is still the chocolate rabbit, followed by the chocolate egg.

The manufacturers are optimistic, they expect that raw material prices will stabilize, energy prices will stagnate, and they hope for further rationalization and administrative simplification in tax matters. According to their forecast, the decline in turnover will not be as significant as in the 2008 recession or the first year of the pandemic, and they do not expect a prolonged crisis. At the same time, referring to the sudden changes and hectic processes of the economic, ecological and social environment, it was noted that with such predictions, hopes and estimations, it should be taken into account that nowadays ‘you never know’.

About the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers:

Founded in 1992, the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers (MÉSZ) is the ambassador of the producers of quality confectionery to be consumed with pleasure and moderation. The Association engages in dialogue with the public and decision-makers and represents the interests of the sector in Hungary and in the Union. Its aim is to create a supportive and competitive environment for the Hungarian confectionery industry. It stands for fair taxation, correct regulation, skilled workforce and high quality education. Website: https://www.hunbisco.hu/

For further information please contact:

Gábor Intődy 

Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers

sec.gen@hunbisco.hu

+36 70 359 6989

Year-end thoughts for 2022

It seems that the world market raw material prices for confectionery are stabilising albeit at an elevated level. However, vulnerability remains high. Consolidation can be overshadowed by unexpected political, military, or weather events, as well as the appearance of pests or diseases.

The European price of sugar rose by 100 percent. There is reason to hope that Ukraine could be a good alternative source if the sugar’s growing, harvesting and shipping facilities are operational in 2023. Sugar is cheaper on the world market due to the punitive tariffs of the European markets. The price of cocoa increased by 10 percent, but at the same time the price of future contracts reverted to the previous levels. The price of milk powder increased by 100 percent from the price at the beginning of 2021 to the middle of 2022, but since then it has adjusted back to plus 40 percent; the current price level is decreasingly stable. The price of wheat has increased by 50 percent, but the current price level is stable. The price of vanilla is stable, but due to less flowering as a consequence of negative environmental effects and increasing demand, a staggered price increase of 3-5 percent per year is expected. Vanilla is grown almost exclusively in Madagascar, and an unexpected weather phenomenon could cause significant price shifts for this raw material as well.

Not only for confectionery, but also for many everyday foods, the National Health Product Tax (NETA) significantly increases the prices, in the case of which we are constantly asking the decision-makers to eliminate tax duplication, because the raw materials used are taxed at every point of the production chain. As a result of the import ratio, the forint exchange rate affects the consumer prices too. The atomization of traders’ losses due to price freezes drives up the price of non-price-freeze products, and sweets are particularly vulnerable to this. The increase in costs due to rising wages is also reflected in the prices. The rise in energy prices seriously affects all confectionery companies, but there are varying degrees in this. Businesses working with baking, typically those producing biscuits, wafers and crisps, are the most exposed, as the technology here is based on gas, which is practically impossible to replace with another energy source. Many companies have, for example, modernised their heating systems or installed solar panels (typically in island systems) that improve efficiency.

We expect that the turnover of Christmas confectionery will not fall short of last year, but the quantities purchased may decline. The hit product of the Christmas season is traditional Christmas candy. Jelly-filling is still the most popular, and products with marzipan, coconut, and hazelnut cream fillings are among the most sought-after. Many people have purchased Christmas candies from artisan producers, where there is a huge selection of flavours and a great desire to experiment. For example mulled wine, quince, fruit jelly and salty pistachio flavours have widened the selection of flavour offerings. At the end of 2022, traditional Christmas candy was included in the Hungarian Repository of Values, which currently features 148 items, and was declared a product of outstanding national value.

2022 Christmas Candy Contest

With the cooperation of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers, the owners of the Christmas Candy of the Year Contest project, Ádám Kovács and Gergely Kovács, announced the results on November 24, 2022: the list of winners can be found here:  https://azevszaloncukra.hu/nyertesek/2022

The price of Christmas candy rose in 2022 to a lesser extent than the overall increase in food prices, and confectionery manufacturers expect that the average consumption of one kilo per household may decrease slightly. Experience shows that consumers have a hard time letting go of quality, which is why the Association is counting on a decrease in consumed quantity.

The raw materials used for Christmas candy have significantly become more expensive, but since Christmas candy is typically produced in the first half of the year, this does not yet fully affect the current season. The price of sugar, for example, was EUR 500-550 per tonne in September, and as a result of the unprecedented price increase in October, it rose to almost EUR 1,100. The price of glucose syrup, mainly used for jelly-filling Christmas candy, also doubled, but the price of other raw materials and packaging materials also increased significantly. Two-thirds of the Christmas candies on the market are the most popular jelly-filling types, the rest of the market is shared by coconut, caramel, marzipan, hazelnut cream and other specialty fillings. This year, the salted caramel flavor became particularly popular, but – as it can be seen from the Christmas Candy of the Year Contest – the specialties variants that offer a unique taste experience are also gaining popularity.

Organic, vegan and functional food Christmas candy products are also starting to have a more marked presence on the market too.