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Sugar, candies, gummies and stir sticks

Flavour-packed gummy candies and rock sugar swizzle sticks

Successful candy manufacturers are responding to the fluctuations of the sugar market by developing innovative, export-winning products, as was revealed at a roundtable discussion in Budapest, to which the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers and the Committee of European Sugar Users invited members of the press in early October. Trade organizations representing producers and processors are also proposing new measures to lawmakers that would increase the competitiveness of our region.

Domestic confectionery manufacturers are experiencing both ups and downs due to changes in prices, consumer demand, and the regulatory environment, said Sándor Sánta, president of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers, in his opening presentation. For example, the market size in the first eight months of this year approached HUF 450 billion, however manufacturer revenues were boosted by strong inflation, as the market declined in terms of volume delivered, while sales volume in food and food-related mixed retail increased by 2.7 percent during the same period.

The price of cocoa, which reached record highs last year, has now moderated, but is still double what it was two years ago. What’s more, confectionery manufacturers will only be able to enjoy the favorable turnaround next year, because they have already manufactured their products for this year’s holiday season.

Just hours before the press roundtable, the European Commission announced that it is postponing the entry into force of the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation) on the marketing of deforestation-free products, including cocoa, coffee, soy, and oil palm, for another year. Market players will therefore have to prepare to meet the compliance requirements by the end of 2026, and this will also help confectionery manufacturers reduce their costs this year.

However, the further increase in EPR fees from October this year places an additional burden on market participants. In accordance with the EU environmental directive on Extended Producer Responsibility, Hungary has been operating an EPR system since July 2023. Accordingly manufacturers finance the waste management of certain circular  products, including packaging and advertising paper. Sándor Sánta pointed out that the fee increase is difficult to interpret in a system that is already the most expensive in Europe. With increasing revenues from more extensive recycling, EPR fees should, on the contrary, decrease.

Sugar price fluctuations and security of supply

The Committee of European Sugar-Users (CIUS) represents more than 15,000 food and beverage companies that purchase the majority of sugar produced in the EU for use in high value-added products such as confectionery, fruit jams, chocolate, and soft drinks. The organization’s member companies provide more than 400,000 jobs and contribute significantly to the EU’s agricultural and food industry performance and export surplus.

The European Union annually produces 15-20 million tons of beet sugar, ranking first in the world, said Mayssa Vandevyvre, Director General of CIUS, in her presentation. Our suppliers produce at competitive prices that rival the price of Brazilian cane sugar, however the market is burdened by structural problems. For example, sugar production is concentrated in the European beet belt – northern France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom, while refineries are largely located in regions where beet production is low, including Portugal, Southeast Europe, and southern Italy.

Moreover the European sugar market is also highly consolidated, with French and German companies supplying half of the total production, and the seven largest producers accounting for more than four-fifths (81%) of the EU market. This restricts competition and increases transportation costs. The market price of sugar in the EU often fluctuates, deviating up and down from both the EU reference price and the world market price. In addition to production and exports, the EU also imports sugar from several countries around the world. Between October last year and September this year, nearly a third of sugar imports came from the Ukraine and the United Kingdom, and a quarter from Mauritius and Colombia.

Although European sugar buyers prefer local sourcing, CIUS is calling for greater diversity. Diversification would increase security of supply and reduce the risk of market distortion. The organization also recommends that legislators review counterproductive regulations. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of EU sugar used, the focus should be on the added value of the manufactured products, and regulation in this market should also be based on facts, impact studies, and consultation with stakeholders.

Tasty thrills and crispy delights for the holidays

Haribo, the leading manufacturer of gummy candies, opened its Hungarian factory in Nemesvámos at the turn of the millennium, from where it ships products across the world, from Canada to Australia. These products are made from natural ingredients in accordance with the strictest food industry standards, without the addition of artificial colorings, and are also available in vegan versions. This year’s holiday season novelties include sour gummy bats, sweet and sour gummy pumpkins and ghosts, while gummy reindeer also promise new taste experiences for Christmas.

Storck, also making its debut at the press conference, is expanding its Hungarian product range with innovative products. The largest supplier of caramel cream candies is putting caramel popcorn and biscuit bites on the shelves of domestic stores.

Although NL Green may not be well known among domestic consumers, the flavored rock candy sticks produced by the Mórahalom-based company are highly sought-after in markets such as the United States. The innovative power of this small company is demonstrated by the fact that, in addition to the sticks that sweeten hot drinks during stirring, to meet customer demand they have also now produced a swizzle stick that dissolves in cold drinks, for use in gin and tequila-based cocktails. It would come as no surprise if this product line were to conquer the domestic market in the near future too.

Supercharged chocolate Santas on the rollercoaster of commodity prices

Suppliers are responding to changes in prices, costs and legislation with innovation, while consumers are adapting and experimenting, the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers pointed out at its end-of-year press event, where it also revealed the flavour combinations that the ‘Christmas Candy (szaloncukor) of the Year’ will tempt you with.

Although we have seen lower confectionery sales in the last two years, the nominal value of trade is increasing, and consumers are turning their attention to quality products, said Sándor Sánta, President of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers, in his opening speech.

For example, the price of cocoa, one of the most important raw materials, has been on a rollercoaster ride this year – from USD 4,000 in January to over USD 10,000 in April, then through a series of steep falls and peaks to USD 6,000 and even USD 5,000, before jumping back to USD 8,000 in November, where it has stabilised for now. Alongside this, other commodities have also become much more expensive, with the price of sugar rising by around 50% worldwide. Although the latter has had little impact on domestic producers, chocolate price has risen by 10% year-on-year in Q3 of this year, compared with the food price inflation of around 3%.

Costs of production are also increasing, with wages and freight rates up over 10%, packaging materials such as paper and aluminium foil up over 50-70%, and natural gas prices have also been on a similar trajectory to cocoa all year. The weakening of the Forint is also having a negative impact on industry players, as their products, with the exception of biscuits, are largely made from imported raw materials.

However, confectionery manufacturers are responding to the mounting challenges with innovations. As the Christmas season approaches for example, chocolate Santas supercharged with surprising flavours and textures are appearing with caramel, gingerbread and rice flake toppings while in Western Europe, 3D printed chocolate figures are also being added to the offering.

Other products are also being updated with retro soft drink flavours, intense fruit flavour combinations and a blend of textures, and are being supplied in new types of packaging, such as smaller, bite-sized packs. They also come with free-from versions, although these are less sought-after by consumers who are usually open to trying new flavours, textures and formats – those who buy sweets and are in good health typically want to indulge themselves.

Sándor Sánta said that the biggest bite out of the domestic confectionery market, which is estimated at around HUF 380 billion at shelf price, will be taken in the November-December period, with a value of around HUF 50 billion. He predicts that 8-9 million chocolate Santas will be put in baskets this year, approaching 400 tonnes in quantity with a total value of just over HUF 2 billion. For Christmas, we could buy around 3.5 tonnes of Christmas candy (szaloncukor), worth more than HUF 15 billion.

Christmas candy – a Hungaricum and quality foodstuff

Although fondant is of a French origin and arrived to Hungary in the 19th century via German mediation, the Christmas candy has become an important product of the Hungarian sweet- and confectionery industry and, in its own way, is an indispensable part of Christmas, so this June it was included in the collection of Hungaricums.

Confectionery manufacturers can now apply for the award of the Foodstuff of Excellent Quality (KMÉ) trademark in the Christmas candy product category, said Beáta Olga Felkai, Deputy State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture. The KMÉ trademark is currently one of the highest levels of recognition in this field in Hungary, referring to both the safety and quality of food – for example, the National Food Chain Safety Office (Nébih) certification is a prerequisite for applying – as well as sustainable production processes.

Indonesia is one of the world’s leading producers of palm oil, accounting for 4% of the country’s gross domestic product and 30% of its agricultural output. This provides the livelihood of over 17 million people, said Seress Nuraini Novianti, a student and Scientific Students’ Conference candidate at the Budapest University of Economics and Business, who presented the results of her own research at the press event. Indonesia also accounts for 45% of European imports of palm oil, which is a key ingredient in confectionery and much cheaper than other vegetable oils. However, EU regulations to increase sustainability impose requirements that are harder for smaller producers to meet, and more than half of Indonesia’s palm oil producers (55%) are small-scale manufacturers.

Gábor Intődy, Secretary General of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers, also pointed out the challenges arising from changes in legislation, taxes and product fees. While 10% of the tax revenues from the public health product tax (NETA) will be managed by the highly transparent Active Hungary State Secretariat from 2025 onwards and will transparently serve prevention, healthy eating and the promotion of mass sports, the tax rate remains high and will also affect natural and sugar-free products. Another big question mark is how the state expects to collect 14% more from NETA in 2025 compared to the 2024 budget revenue plan of HUF 85 billion, totalling HUF 97 billion under the recently adopted state budget law. Meanwhile, sales volumes of products typically covered by the tax are on a steady downward trajectory.

The Extended Producer Responsibility (ERP) levy to promote the circular economy is also strikingly high by European standards, to the detriment of competitiveness. And the EUDR, the European Union’s regulation on deforestation-free products, will put small and micro-enterprises in particular on a difficult path, with significant administrative tasks, risk management and certification obligations – with fines of up to 4% of revenue or the burden of stock seizures. A majority of EU manufacturers, governments and trade associations have called for a one-year delay to the planned EUDR introduction in 2025, which is expected to be voted for by the European Parliament.

Last but not least, Ádám Kovács and Gergely Kovács, the founders and promoters of the award, announced the winners of the ‘Christmas Candy of the Year 2024’ competition categories at the press event. The main prize was awarded to the Stühmer’s pear jelly – champagne flavoured festive sweet.

Cocoa market capriccio

Exchange rate fluctuations, speculators, alternative raw materials and climate change – what will our chocolate be made of in the future and how much will it cost? At its summer roundtable, the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers analysed the trends disrupting the cocoa market.

While consumers are enjoying their summer holidays, confectionery manufacturers are already preparing for the Christmas season. However, the price of cocoa has soared fourfold since last autumn, so everyone in the industry is now facing the same question, said Sándor Sánta, President of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers. – What price tag will chocolate Santas and Christmas candy have on the shelves?

Although commodity markets are generally characterised by price movements in a trading range, the shock of unexpected changes in fundamentals can trigger unusual price movements, said Gábor Bukta, head of the analysis branch of Concorde Group, in his presentation at the event. This is not the first turbulent period in the cocoa market, with similar volatility already seen in the 1970s, when cocoa prices jumped to around $6,000 per tonne.

However, in a market that is always pricing the future, price movements are influenced not only by expected changes in supply and demand, but also by a number of other factors, including the actions of speculators in the stock market. The latter can even trigger extreme price shifts, but the effect is always temporary. Market participants know well what price increases or decreases are realistic and prices will either recover or find a new equilibrium level after the shock.

This will also be the case in the cocoa market. Although in recent months the price of cocoa has soared from $2-3,000 per tonne to $4,000, $6,000, $8,000 and even $10,000-12,000, and the International Cocoa Organisation expects an 11.6% drop in production this year, analysts who are keeping a close eye on commodity markets, including Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan, expect the price of cocoa to drop to around $6,000 in a year or two.

However, the turbulence in the cocoa market is not affecting the retail price of sweets, Gábor Bukta said. The cost of cocoa adds barely 20% to the retail price of chocolate. In addition, the cocoa content of products varies widely, and manufacturers also use futures to protect themselves against the risk of price fluctuations. The fall in quoted prices included in such contracts also implies a likely cocoa price of around $6,000 by 2025-2026.

Barley, malt, sunflower – cocoa-free chocolate

With only two countries, Ivory Coast and Ghana, accounting for half of the world’s cocoa production, together with Cameroon and Nigeria, this West African region produces more than 60% of the world’s cocoa beans – a geographical concentration that poses serious risks. Monoculture farming leads to deforestation and soil degradation, 50% of cocoa crops are threatened by climate change, while 24,000 litres of water are needed to produce one kilogram of cocoa. Farmers with high carbon footprints and low productivity on cleared land become impoverished, often employing child labourers in hazardous conditions.

That’s why Planet A Foods was the first to develop an alternative to cocoa, said Katrin Förster, the company’s business development manager, who joined the roundtable discussion via video link. The German start-up, founded in 2021, has set its sights on creating sustainable ingredients to help transform the food industry and significantly reduce carbon emissions. The company’s research lab in Munich is the birthplace of ChoViva, which gives you the taste experience of chocolate without cocoa. It is made from locally grown, 100% natural ingredients – oats and/or sunflower seeds – which are fermented and roasted in a very similar way as cocoa beans. Thanks to a short supply chain and an innovative production process, ChoViva’s carbon footprint is up to 90% lower and its water consumption up to 94% less than chocolate production.

Last year, Planet A Foods produced 2,000 tonnes of its product, which is now available in major retail chains, and the innovative ingredient is also attracting interest from big players such as Lindt.

Their aim is not to replace cocoa, says Katrin Förster, but to offer a sustainable alternative that is increasingly expected and appreciated, especially by younger consumers. At the same time, when developing ChoViva, the aim was to create a competitive taste experience, because this is one of the most important prerequisites for market success – and according to the company’s survey, more than 70% of customers are satisfied with the taste, which is already in the indulgent category. If it is available at the same price as products made from cocoa, 95% of respondents would be happy to choose this sustainable alternative. The company is therefore expanding its production capacity in Europe and North America, which will increase production to 10,000 tonnes per year.

Although the exclusive enjoyment value of cocoa, its beneficial physiological effects and the sophistication of the processing technologies make it almost irreplaceable in chocolate production, market players have been looking for alternatives in the past too, pointed out Dr. Ernő Gyimes, Associate Professor at the Institute of Food Engineering at the University of Szeged, in his presentation, which was delivered by Gábor Intődy, Secretary of the Association of Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers.

During the aforementioned crisis in the late 1970s, for example, Estonians made chocolate with traces of cocoa using kama – a flour mixture of the national cuisine containing rye, wheat, barley and peas. But breweries have also tried to make fake cocoa from barley and malt, and the carob – the fruit of the carob tree – is a well-known chocolate substitute too.

There are three approaches when looking for an alternative to cocoa. Fermenting and roasting cereals, like cocoa beans, is an obvious process. However, three years ago, researchers at the University of Zurich developed a method to grow chocolate from a single cocoa bean under laboratory conditions, producing reproducible cocoa tissue in a bioreactor. Growers, processors and manufacturers are also exploring technologies to use the whole cocoa plant crop – not just the cocoa bean – to make either the raw material or the confectionery.

It is important to stress, and the innovators themselves emphasise this, that the alternatives are not intended to replace cocoa, but to add a new flavour to the palette. We must first and foremost strive to protect and preserve our environment so that future generations can live in a world where the cocoa bush grows and the unique and irreplaceable chocolate made from cocoa remains enjoyable and accessible.

Christmas candy with a delayed price effect

It has been our experience for decades that the demand for chocolate is persistent, accounting for a third of confectionery sales, and this will certainly continue to be the case, said István Takács, managing director of Szerencsi Bonbon, who predicted that the price of the top Christmas candy, szaloncukor,  will rise by around 10% by the end of the year. However, higher cocoa content products will become more expensive to produce and may therefore sell less once the delayed effect of the cocoa price explosion reaches the shelves. Meanwhile, manufacturers have to develop new products, but innovation is more difficult under these circumstances.

Dr. Róbert Török, director and chief museologist of the Hungarian Museum of Trade and Hospitality, also spoke about innovations and crises, and gave an overview of the history of chocolate consumption in Hungary dating back to the 18th century.

What cocoa is to the confectionery industry, cellulose is to packaging, which is also in short supply – said Péter Rosta, Professor of Industrial Design at the Faculty of Wood Engineering and Creative Industries at the University of Sopron. In the field of packaging, the task is not only to create designs that respond to modern needs – for which the university’s students have received prestigious national and international awards – but also to develop sustainable solutions.