On the occasion of the upcoming Easter season, the Hungarian Confectionery Manufacturers’ Association has provided an overview of last year’s developments and expectations for the year ahead, based on feedback from its member companies and the data available.
The Association expects a subdued Easter season and the continuation of a trend now lasting two years, whereby sales volumes stagnate or slightly decline, as consumers compensate for rising prices. The 2025 Easter season was also modest in terms of volumes sold, while prices for seasonal Easter products increased by 10–20% compared to 2024, depending on the product category. Looking at the full year, the winning category was savoury snacks, where both volumes and revenues were able to grow.
The biscuit market has shown stable consumption over the past three years, while the sales volumes of tablets and countline products have been continuously declining. Ice cream consumption has also decreased, partly due to weather conditions. In the dessert segment, the negative impact of rising cocoa prices was also felt; however, a positive development is that alcohol-filled desserts regained market share. This also reflects a broader trend: high-quality, special confectionery products have become accepted as gifts, and consumers are willing to pay a premium for products offering a higher enjoyment value.
One of the biggest surprises of 2026 so far is that cocoa prices have corrected back close to the historically typical levels seen before the price spike two years ago, with global market prices again around USD 2,500 per tonne. This even exceeds optimistic analyst expectations: at the time of the peak around USD 14,000, experts anticipated a level of approximately USD 4,000 within a few years.
While this is a favourable development for the industry, the evolution of cocoa prices also highlights how rapidly and significantly the market environment can change. One of the biggest challenges for confectionery manufacturers today is the sharp deterioration in predictability. In addition to cost-side uncertainty, shifting consumer habits are also shaping the market.
Uncertainty is reinforced by several factors: developments in raw material markets (e.g. sugar and cereals), exchange rate fluctuations — in 2025, the Hungarian forint moved in a range of 380 to 416 against the euro — energy costs, as well as oil prices, which directly affect transportation costs and have risen from around USD 60 last year to approximately USD 100 currently. In addition, logistics costs, labour costs, as well as taxes, fees and contributions are all increasing. Due to cost pressure and labour shortages, the industry is turning increasingly rapidly towards automation and digitalisation.
At the same time, consumer behaviour is also evolving: shoppers are becoming more price-conscious, while remaining reluctant to compromise on quality. There is a simultaneous presence of nostalgia for traditional flavours — for example, the enduring popularity of Easter figures such as chocolate bunnies and eggs — and demand for higher value-added, premium or innovative products. In addition, the growing importance of products suitable for immediate consumption, such as snacks and ice cream, is reshaping seasonal patterns.
In this environment, companies’ primary objective is risk management, which also means that decreases in raw material prices do not automatically translate into lower consumer prices.
At the same time, the role of short-term promotions is expected to increase significantly in 2026. With improving cost levels, manufacturers may be able to offer temporary price advantages without taking on long-term risks. This can help stimulate sales, strengthen brands and increase customer loyalty, as consumers can access their favourite products at particularly attractive prices during promotional periods.